Sunday, December 21, 2008
Monday, November 24, 2008
Tracking the top 2-loss team...
As I first noted here, the top 2-loss team has finished no worse than 4th in any final BCS poll of the 12-game seasons ('02, '03, '06, and '07). But with 2 weeks left in 2008, it looks like this year the top 2-loss team will finish outside the top 4... and maybe by several spots.
After Week 13, Ohio State is the top 2-loss team at #10. By comparison, the top 2-loss team in 2007 after Week 13 was Georgia at #4.
2008 is turning out to be the opposite extreme of 2007 as far as late season upsets go.
As I first noted here, the top 2-loss team has finished no worse than 4th in any final BCS poll of the 12-game seasons ('02, '03, '06, and '07). But with 2 weeks left in 2008, it looks like this year the top 2-loss team will finish outside the top 4... and maybe by several spots.
After Week 13, Ohio State is the top 2-loss team at #10. By comparison, the top 2-loss team in 2007 after Week 13 was Georgia at #4.
2008 is turning out to be the opposite extreme of 2007 as far as late season upsets go.
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
# of AP pre-season Top 10 teams that had at least 1 loss after Week 5 (in the 12-game seasons):
'02: 6
'03: 6
'06: 5
'07: 6
'08: 7
'02: 6
'03: 6
'06: 5
'07: 6
'08: 7
Labels: AP, polls, pre-season, stats
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Could a 2-loss team make the MNC game again?
The top-ranked (in the final BCS poll) 2-loss team in 12 game seasons:
2002
1) Miami (0 losses)
2) OSU (0)
3) Georgia (1)
4) USC
Losses shy: 3
2003
1) Oklahoma (1)
2) LSU (1)
3) USC (1)
4) Michigan
Losses shy: 2
2006
1) OSU (0)
2) Florida (1)
3) Michigan (1)
4) LSU
Losses shy: 2
2007
1) OSU (1)
2) LSU
Losses shy: 0
The top-ranked (in the final BCS poll) 2-loss team in 12 game seasons:
2002
1) Miami (0 losses)
2) OSU (0)
3) Georgia (1)
4) USC
Losses shy: 3
2003
1) Oklahoma (1)
2) LSU (1)
3) USC (1)
4) Michigan
Losses shy: 2
2006
1) OSU (0)
2) Florida (1)
3) Michigan (1)
4) LSU
Losses shy: 2
2007
1) OSU (1)
2) LSU
Losses shy: 0
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Longest double-digit (margin of victory) win streaks of the 2000s (BCS conference teams):
Miami '00-'01: 17
USC '03-'04: 12
Nebraska '01: 11
Texas '05: 10
Ohio State '05-'06: 10
Oklahoma '03: 10
Oklahoma '00-'01: 9
Oklahoma '00: 8
UGA '07-current: 8
Auburn '04: 7
Miami '00-'01: 17
USC '03-'04: 12
Nebraska '01: 11
Texas '05: 10
Ohio State '05-'06: 10
Oklahoma '03: 10
Oklahoma '00-'01: 9
Oklahoma '00: 8
UGA '07-current: 8
Auburn '04: 7
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
The curse of #1?
# of final AP #1s ('68-'07), by preseason ranking:
#1: 7 (17.5%)
#2: 6 (15.0%)
#3: 2 (5.0%)
#4: 4 (10.0%)
#5: 1 (2.5%)
#6: 1 (2.5%)
#7: 1 (2.5%)
#8: 4 (10.0%)
#9: 3 (7.5%)
#10: 2 (5.0%)
#11: 1 (2.5%)
#12: 0
#13: 2 (5.0%)
#14: 1 (2.5%)
#15: 0
#16: 1 (2.5%)
#17: 0
#18: 0
#19: 1 (2.5%)
#20: 0
>#20: 3 (7.5%)
More...
#1s, by season(preseason ranking):
07: LSU (#2)
06: Florida (#7)
05: Texas (#2)
04: USC (#1)
03: USC (#8)
02: OSU (#13)
01: Miami (#2)
00: Oklahoma (#19)
99: Florida State (#1)
98: Tennessee (#10)
97: Michigan (#14)
96: Florida (#4)
95: Nebraska (#2)
94: Nebraska (#4)
93: Florida State (#1)
92: Alabama (#9)
91: Miami (#3)
90: Colorado (#5)
89: Miami (#4)
88: Notre Dame (#13)
87: Miami (#10)
86: Penn State (#6)
85: Oklahoma (#1)
84: BYU (NR)
83: Miami (NR)
82: Penn State (#8)
81: Clemson (NR)
80: Georgia (#16)
79: Alabama (#2)
78: Alabama (#1)
77: Notre Dame (#3)
76: Pittsburgh (#9)
75: Oklahoma (#1)
74: Oklahoma (#1)
73: Notre Dame (#8)
72: USC (#8)
71: Nebraska (#2)
70: Nebraska (#9)
69: Texas (#4)
68: Ohio State (#11)
Note: The first AP preseason poll was in 1950. The poll expanded from 10 to 20 teams in 1968; from 20 to 25 in 1989.
# of final AP #1s ('68-'07), by preseason ranking:
#1: 7 (17.5%)
#2: 6 (15.0%)
#3: 2 (5.0%)
#4: 4 (10.0%)
#5: 1 (2.5%)
#6: 1 (2.5%)
#7: 1 (2.5%)
#8: 4 (10.0%)
#9: 3 (7.5%)
#10: 2 (5.0%)
#11: 1 (2.5%)
#12: 0
#13: 2 (5.0%)
#14: 1 (2.5%)
#15: 0
#16: 1 (2.5%)
#17: 0
#18: 0
#19: 1 (2.5%)
#20: 0
>#20: 3 (7.5%)
More...
#1s, by season(preseason ranking):
07: LSU (#2)
06: Florida (#7)
05: Texas (#2)
04: USC (#1)
03: USC (#8)
02: OSU (#13)
01: Miami (#2)
00: Oklahoma (#19)
99: Florida State (#1)
98: Tennessee (#10)
97: Michigan (#14)
96: Florida (#4)
95: Nebraska (#2)
94: Nebraska (#4)
93: Florida State (#1)
92: Alabama (#9)
91: Miami (#3)
90: Colorado (#5)
89: Miami (#4)
88: Notre Dame (#13)
87: Miami (#10)
86: Penn State (#6)
85: Oklahoma (#1)
84: BYU (NR)
83: Miami (NR)
82: Penn State (#8)
81: Clemson (NR)
80: Georgia (#16)
79: Alabama (#2)
78: Alabama (#1)
77: Notre Dame (#3)
76: Pittsburgh (#9)
75: Oklahoma (#1)
74: Oklahoma (#1)
73: Notre Dame (#8)
72: USC (#8)
71: Nebraska (#2)
70: Nebraska (#9)
69: Texas (#4)
68: Ohio State (#11)
Note: The first AP preseason poll was in 1950. The poll expanded from 10 to 20 teams in 1968; from 20 to 25 in 1989.
Labels: AP, polls, pre-season, stats
Monday, August 04, 2008
Schedule difficulty of the BCS MNC teams.
Below is a look at the pre-bowl game schedule difficulty of the 10 BCS MNC teams so far. Final AP poll rankings are used. For a game against the #1 team, a team gets 25 points, for the #2 team 24 points, and so on. 3 points added for road games (0 for home/neutral site games).
'00 Oklahoma -- 69: Nebraska (#8), @Kansas State (#9), Kansas State II (#9), Texas (#12)
'06 Florida -- 61: LSU (#3), @Auburn (#9), Arkansas (#15), Georgia (#23), @Tennessee (#25)
'03 LSU -- 56: Georgia (#7), Georgia II (#7), @Ole Miss (#13), Florida (#24)
'07 LSU -- 55: Virginia Tech (#9), Tennessee (#12), Florida (#13), Auburn (#15)
'01 Miami -- 52: Syracuse (#14), @Florida State (#15), @Virginia Tech (#18), Washington (#19), @Boston College (#21)
'98 Tennessee -- 50: Florida (#5), @Georgia (#14), Arkansas (#16), @Syracuse (#25)
'04 USC -- 43: Cal (#9), @Virginia Tech (#10), Arizona State (#19)
'02 Ohio State -- 43: Michigan (#9), Washington State (#10), Penn State (#16)
'05 Texas -- 35: @Ohio State (#4), Texas Tech (#20), Oklahoma (#22)
'99 Florida State -- 34: @Florida (#12), Miami (#15), Georgia Tech (#20)
And for the sake of debate, '04 Auburn scores a 58.
Below is a look at the pre-bowl game schedule difficulty of the 10 BCS MNC teams so far. Final AP poll rankings are used. For a game against the #1 team, a team gets 25 points, for the #2 team 24 points, and so on. 3 points added for road games (0 for home/neutral site games).
'00 Oklahoma -- 69: Nebraska (#8), @Kansas State (#9), Kansas State II (#9), Texas (#12)
'06 Florida -- 61: LSU (#3), @Auburn (#9), Arkansas (#15), Georgia (#23), @Tennessee (#25)
'03 LSU -- 56: Georgia (#7), Georgia II (#7), @Ole Miss (#13), Florida (#24)
'07 LSU -- 55: Virginia Tech (#9), Tennessee (#12), Florida (#13), Auburn (#15)
'01 Miami -- 52: Syracuse (#14), @Florida State (#15), @Virginia Tech (#18), Washington (#19), @Boston College (#21)
'98 Tennessee -- 50: Florida (#5), @Georgia (#14), Arkansas (#16), @Syracuse (#25)
'04 USC -- 43: Cal (#9), @Virginia Tech (#10), Arizona State (#19)
'02 Ohio State -- 43: Michigan (#9), Washington State (#10), Penn State (#16)
'05 Texas -- 35: @Ohio State (#4), Texas Tech (#20), Oklahoma (#22)
'99 Florida State -- 34: @Florida (#12), Miami (#15), Georgia Tech (#20)
And for the sake of debate, '04 Auburn scores a 58.
Sunday, August 03, 2008
How the AP preseason #1s and #2s have fared since 1990.
The #1s:
2007 -- USC (11-2, #3)
2006 -- Ohio State (12-1, #2, lost MNC game)
2005 -- USC (12-1, #2, lost MNC game)
2004 -- USC (13-0, #1)
2003 -- Oklahoma (12-2, #3, lost MNC game)
2002 -- Miami (12-1, #2, lost MNC game)
2001 -- Florida (10-2, #3)
2000 -- Nebraska (10-2, #8)
1999 -- Florida State (12-0, #1)
1998 -- Ohio State (11-1, #2)
1997 -- Penn State (9-3, #16)
1996 -- Nebraska (11-2, #6)
1995 -- Florida State (10-2, #4)
1994 -- Florida (10-2-1, #7)
1993 -- Florida State (12-1, #1)
1992 -- Miami (11-1, #3, lost MNC game)
1991 -- Florida State (11-2, #4)
1990 -- Miami (10-2, #3)
More...
The #2s:
2007 -- LSU (12-2, #1)
2006 -- Notre Dame (10-3, #17)
2005 -- Texas (13-0, #1)
2004 -- Oklahoma (12-1, #3, lost MNC game)
2003 -- Ohio State (11-2, #4)
2002 -- Miami (12-1, #2, lost MNC game)
2001 -- Miami (12-0, #1)
2000 -- Florida State (11-2, #5, lost MNC game)
1999 -- Tennessee (9-3, #9)
1998 -- Florida State (11-2, #3, lost MNC game)
1997 -- Florida (10-2, #4)
1996 -- Tennessee (10-2, #9)
1995 -- Nebraska (12-0, #1)
1994 -- Notre Dame (6-5-1, NR)
1993 -- Alabama (9-3-1, #14)
1992 -- Washington (9-3, #11)
1991 -- Michigan (10-2, #6)
1990 -- Notre Dame (9-3, #6)
The #1s:
2007 -- USC (11-2, #3)
2006 -- Ohio State (12-1, #2, lost MNC game)
2005 -- USC (12-1, #2, lost MNC game)
2004 -- USC (13-0, #1)
2003 -- Oklahoma (12-2, #3, lost MNC game)
2002 -- Miami (12-1, #2, lost MNC game)
2001 -- Florida (10-2, #3)
2000 -- Nebraska (10-2, #8)
1999 -- Florida State (12-0, #1)
1998 -- Ohio State (11-1, #2)
1997 -- Penn State (9-3, #16)
1996 -- Nebraska (11-2, #6)
1995 -- Florida State (10-2, #4)
1994 -- Florida (10-2-1, #7)
1993 -- Florida State (12-1, #1)
1992 -- Miami (11-1, #3, lost MNC game)
1991 -- Florida State (11-2, #4)
1990 -- Miami (10-2, #3)
More...
The #2s:
2007 -- LSU (12-2, #1)
2006 -- Notre Dame (10-3, #17)
2005 -- Texas (13-0, #1)
2004 -- Oklahoma (12-1, #3, lost MNC game)
2003 -- Ohio State (11-2, #4)
2002 -- Miami (12-1, #2, lost MNC game)
2001 -- Miami (12-0, #1)
2000 -- Florida State (11-2, #5, lost MNC game)
1999 -- Tennessee (9-3, #9)
1998 -- Florida State (11-2, #3, lost MNC game)
1997 -- Florida (10-2, #4)
1996 -- Tennessee (10-2, #9)
1995 -- Nebraska (12-0, #1)
1994 -- Notre Dame (6-5-1, NR)
1993 -- Alabama (9-3-1, #14)
1992 -- Washington (9-3, #11)
1991 -- Michigan (10-2, #6)
1990 -- Notre Dame (9-3, #6)
Labels: AP, polls, pre-season, stats
Friday, August 01, 2008
AP Preseason Poll #1 teams.
-- 21 different schools since 1950 (the first year the AP released a preseason poll); only 13 different schools since 1970.
-- Only 10 schools have been AP preseason #1 more than once.
-- 10 of the 58 (17.2%) AP preseason #1s have won the AP MNC.
More...
By season (#1 finish in bold)
07: USC
06: Ohio State
05: USC
04: USC
03: Oklahoma
02: Miami
01: Florida
00: Nebraska
99: Florida State
98: Ohio State
97: Penn State
96: Nebraska
95: Florida State
94: Florida
93: Florida State
92: Miami
91: Florida State
90: Miami
89: Michigan
88: Florida State
87: Oklahoma
86: Oklahoma
85: Oklahoma
84: Auburn
83: Nebraska
82: Pitt
81: Michigan
80: Ohio State
79: USC
78: Alabama
77: Oklahoma
76: Nebraska
75: Oklahoma
74: Oklahoma
73: USC
72: Nebraska
71: Notre Dame
70: Ohio State
69: Ohio State
68: Purdue
67: Notre Dame
66: Alabama
65: Nebraska
64: Ole Miss
63: USC
62: Ohio State
61: Iowa
60: Syracuse
59: LSU
58: Ohio State
57: Oklahoma
56: Oklahoma
55: UCLA
54: Notre Dame
53: Notre Dame
52: Michigan State
51: Tennessee
50: Notre Dame
Number of seasons at preseason #1
Oklahoma: 9
Ohio State: 7
Nebraska: 6
USC: 6
Florida State: 5
Notre Dame: 5
Miami: 3
Alabama: 2
Florida: 2
Michigan: 2
Auburn: 1
Iowa: 1
LSU: 1
Ole Miss: 1
Michigan State: 1
Penn State: 1
Pitt: 1
Purdue: 1
Syracuse: 1
Tennessee: 1
UCLA: 1
-- 21 different schools since 1950 (the first year the AP released a preseason poll); only 13 different schools since 1970.
-- Only 10 schools have been AP preseason #1 more than once.
-- 10 of the 58 (17.2%) AP preseason #1s have won the AP MNC.
More...
By season (#1 finish in bold)
07: USC
06: Ohio State
05: USC
04: USC
03: Oklahoma
02: Miami
01: Florida
00: Nebraska
99: Florida State
98: Ohio State
97: Penn State
96: Nebraska
95: Florida State
94: Florida
93: Florida State
92: Miami
91: Florida State
90: Miami
89: Michigan
88: Florida State
87: Oklahoma
86: Oklahoma
85: Oklahoma
84: Auburn
83: Nebraska
82: Pitt
81: Michigan
80: Ohio State
79: USC
78: Alabama
77: Oklahoma
76: Nebraska
75: Oklahoma
74: Oklahoma
73: USC
72: Nebraska
71: Notre Dame
70: Ohio State
69: Ohio State
68: Purdue
67: Notre Dame
66: Alabama
65: Nebraska
64: Ole Miss
63: USC
62: Ohio State
61: Iowa
60: Syracuse
59: LSU
58: Ohio State
57: Oklahoma
56: Oklahoma
55: UCLA
54: Notre Dame
53: Notre Dame
52: Michigan State
51: Tennessee
50: Notre Dame
Number of seasons at preseason #1
Oklahoma: 9
Ohio State: 7
Nebraska: 6
USC: 6
Florida State: 5
Notre Dame: 5
Miami: 3
Alabama: 2
Florida: 2
Michigan: 2
Auburn: 1
Iowa: 1
LSU: 1
Ole Miss: 1
Michigan State: 1
Penn State: 1
Pitt: 1
Purdue: 1
Syracuse: 1
Tennessee: 1
UCLA: 1
Labels: AP, polls, pre-season, stats
Friday, July 25, 2008
# of Top 25 teams played in the regular season by BCS champions.
(Using the final AP Poll rankings; including conf. championship games)
2007: 4 (LSU)
2006: 5 (Florida)
2005: 3 (Texas)
2004: 3 (USC)
2003: 4 (LSU)
2002: 3 (Ohio State)
2001: 5 (Miami)
2000: 4 (Oklahoma)
1999: 3 (Florida State)
1998: 4 (Tennessee)
(Using the final AP Poll rankings; including conf. championship games)
2007: 4 (LSU)
2006: 5 (Florida)
2005: 3 (Texas)
2004: 3 (USC)
2003: 4 (LSU)
2002: 3 (Ohio State)
2001: 5 (Miami)
2000: 4 (Oklahoma)
1999: 3 (Florida State)
1998: 4 (Tennessee)
Labels: stats